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Sector Lens

The consensus view, tested against the real data — industry by industry.

Every sector has a story everyone already believes. These pieces test those views against our research and with real numbers—then, we take positions where the data are likely to point elsewhere.

FEATURED SECTOR LENS

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Automotive & Electric Vehicles

Is the US Losing the EV Race, or Just Running a Different One?

The US isn't early in the EV transition — it's specifically stalled, on a policy trigger that's already fired. The relevant perimeter is North American, not American, and it's already open at the point of least resistance.

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ALL SECTOR LENS INSIGHTS

Digital Infrastructure

Site Selection Used to Be a Real Estate Decision. It Is Now a Board-Level One.

In 2026, site readiness is a spectrum defined by power certainty, entitlement risk, delivery sequencing, and political exposure — all at once. This is now a board-level risk, not a site-selection footnote.

Semiconductors

The Capacity Everyone Is Counting On Is Not the Capacity That Exists Today

Announced fab investment isn't available supply. The gap between capital committed and capacity delivered — 36 to 60 months, plus a single-supplier bottleneck above the fab layer — is where the real planning risk sits.

Energy & Utilities

For a Decade, Power Was Assumed. It Has Become the Largest Constraint on Industrial Growth.

Only 13% of interconnection requests filed 2000-2019 reached commercial operation by 2024. Withdrawal, not connection, is the modal outcome — and utility relationship management is now a core commercial capability.

Technology

Is AI's ROI Debate Asking the Wrong Question?

Both the bulls and the bears in the AI ROI debate are answering the wrong question. The real fault line is organizational discipline, not which technology camp you're in.

Automotive & Electric Vehicles

Is the US Losing the EV Race, or Just Running a Different One?

The US isn't early in the EV transition — it's specifically stalled, on a policy trigger that's already fired. The relevant perimeter is North American, not American, and it's already open at the point of least resistance.

Nonprofit & Social Sector

Nonprofits Have Adopted AI. Almost None Have Changed Because of It.

A 92% adoption rate sounds like the sector has arrived. The 7% impact number says it hasn't even started — and the barrier is governance, not access.

Cross-Industry

Why 9 in 10 Founder-Led Companies Never Reach $10 Billion

The formula that built the first billion is still fully intact in most stalled companies — it's just no longer the right formula, and most organizations have no mechanism for recognizing that in time.

Financial Services — Private Equity

Your AI Value Creation Thesis Has a Clock Problem

61% of PE-backed companies have no formal AI strategy at acquisition. The swing factor isn't the technology or the budget — it's whether the thesis is sequenced before close, or improvised after.

Sector Lens: Industry Insights

A position only means something once it's been tested against your own numbers.

Vaxa builds the version that holds up under your own scrutiny, not just ours. Bring the numbers that matter to your business, and we'll run the same test.

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